CRANBERRY TOWNSHIP, Penn. (DTN) -- Perspective changes everything. According to 2026 DTN Digital Yield Tour estimates, yields in Kansas are predicted to trend a few bushels below average. But statewide averages don't fully tell the story this season, as reports from around Kansas show vastly different results.

There's optimism in the east, where plentiful rains have farmers anticipating a good crop, "fantastic" in the eyes of some in the region. Travel to central Kansas, and reports reveal mixed results, where some fields have already surpassed expectations while others may not reach harvest. Finally, in the west, the outlook is grim as drought and persistent 100-degree heat have burnt up hopes of a big harvest.

CORN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2026: 112.5 bushels per acre (bpa)

-- DTN 2025: 138.7 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 115.5 bpa

SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2026: 38.9 bpa

-- DTN 2025: 42.8 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 42.6 bpa

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its ninth season, this is the third year that it employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. The tour estimates reported here are based on yield models as of Aug. 1. The models update every two weeks and do not incorporate weather forecasts.

For more about how those models work and what makes them unique, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Updated yield model results will be shared in early September on DTN's online products. You can view a Reporter's Notebook that previewed the Digital Yield Tour at https://www.dtnpf.com/…. On Aug. 14, you can find the post-tour Reporter's Notebook video at https://www.dtnpf.com/…. Also, later in August, you can hear a Field Posts Podcast about the tour results at https://www.dtnpf.com/….

WEATHER COMMENTARY

Kansas started out in a precarious spot this season, said DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick. Though largely drought-free during the winter, the weather pattern focused rainfall on the eastern end of the state in the spring.

"Dryness concerns spread across the western half of the state, affecting the winter wheat crop significantly, but also led to increased irrigation demand early in the year," he said.

Though heat increased this summer -- and a lot of areas experienced days in the 90s Fahrenheit with a couple of heat waves being significant in July -- precipitation increased along with the heat. Late June saw some good rainfall in the west, while some northern and eastern areas have received good rainfall in July as fronts stalled out between Kansas and Nebraska.

"The drought monitor does not look as bad as the conditions could be, though," Baranick said. "The heat and relative dryness in July have led to falling crop conditions and the increased need for irrigation again, just as the critical time for pollinating and filling corn and soybeans has arrived. A system that moved through much of the Corn Belt at the end of July missed large areas of the state, and a lack of rain moving forward could send our yield forecasts lower as the season progresses."

MARKET COMMENTARY

DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said it has been a hot and dry 2026 for western Kansas, and after a historically poor wheat crop, the DTN Digital Yield Tour suggests concern for the state's corn output as well.

"This year's initial DTN yield model forecasts a statewide average yield 26.2 bpa lower than the initial run in August of 2025," he said. "USDA published a similar take in the August Crop Production report with a 19 bpa year-over-year drop. It may boil down to a case of east versus west this year for Kansas, with rainfall decent in the northeast portion of the state but southern and western areas very dry through July."

Montgomery noted that the 2026 Kansas soybean crop may fare better in percentage terms relative to corn given the eastward shift in production, with the eastern half of Kansas receiving more rainfall through July, although the August forecast is now leaning dry.

"As of the most recent USDA Crop Progress Report, 59% of the Kansas soybean crop is considered in good-to-excellent condition, down 10 points from 2025, though that is slightly ahead of the state's five-year average for early August," he said. "A comparable year in terms of USDA ratings would be 2024, when yields finished just a touch below the previous five-year average. In this regard, the DTN Digital Yield Tour result for 2026 makes sense in calling for a moderately below-average yield with perhaps a lower bias moving forward with not much rainfall in the forecast for mid to late August."

OBSERVATIONS

-- Justin Knopf, Salina, Saline County, Kansas:

Corn and soybeans are looking tough on Justin Knopf's dryland crop operation in Saline County. He, his father and brother focus on building their soil's ability to capture and store water using continuous no-till, cover crops and rotations.

"But to be honest, weeks like this (second week of August) makes me question dryland farming in central Kansas," he told DTN. A heat dome has locked over the top of them, with daytime temperatures above 100 degrees only cooling to 80 degrees at night, for the past two weeks with little relief in sight.

Corn planted between April 12-25 has the best situation. Eight inches of rain in June drowned out corn in low-lying creek- and riverbeds but was a boon to fields with better drainage. July was drier, but the 3 inches of rain that fell kept the crop growing. That corn's milk line was halfway down when the blast furnace turned on.

"The heat shoved it to black layer with premature death," he said. He thinks poor filling conditions cost 40 bpa to 60 bpa and estimates those fields could make 100 bpa. Later-planted corn and even irrigated corn in his area has struggled in the heat. To his south, a lot of corn has been chopped for silage or will make less than 60 bpa.

About a third of Knopf's farm is planted to soybeans each year, and they intentionally spread planting dates from May to June because soybean yields depend so heavily on water.

Early planted beans "looked fantastic until two weeks ago, but this heat is really severe," he said. "These soybeans seem like they're melting away," with drooping, pale leaves that don't recover after temperatures break in the evening.

Two weeks ago, he would have estimated full-season soybeans at 40 bpa. Now, he thinks 35 bpa is optimistic.

Double-cropped soybeans planted the first week of July are handling the heat better, but they make up a smaller number of acres, and he said they usually only target a 25 bpa yield.

"Yields are dropping day by day," he said.

For Saline County, the DTN model predicts yield estimates of 95.4 bpa for corn and 33.5 bpa for soybeans. The county's five-year yield averages are 105.3 bpa and 36.9 bpa for corn and soybeans, respectively.

-- Scott Schechter, Eagle Precision Ag, Hugoton, Stevens County, Kansas:

"I can sum it up," said Scott Schechter, an agronomist and owner of Eagle Precision Ag based out of Hugoton, Kansas, in the state's far southwestern corner. "Not good."

Successive heat waves in June, July and now August have beaten most of the high-yield potential out of corn crop in central and western Kansas, he said. He thinks it may still get worse for his section of the state, as yet another round of heat is in the forecast. Things didn't truly look dire until temperatures soared again this week.

"What we're experiencing right now, this third wave, has been like none other," Schechter said. "We have corn under pretty good irrigation that's struggling. Planting date seems to matter. We had some early-planted corn that doesn't look too bad, and it kind of made it through. You got some middle-of-the-road stuff that almost died in spots, and you've got some late-planted stuff that, if we keep it wet through this heat, it might make it. But I think we have a fourth wave of heat coming next week."

He said he's seeing ear drop, flashing and ear smut in irrigation circles, as much as 20% or 30% of some fields.

The agronomist said this year could go down as one that taught hard lessons, much like 2011 and 2012, when persistent drought rattled the industry in the region.

"After that, people shaped up for a few years," he said. "They didn't gamble quite as much."

Schechter said a long stretch of years with average rainfall may have helped move some farms away from more sustainable practices, but this summer could provide a shock.

"This year is an anomaly, but it probably will happen again, and it's not over yet," he said. "We don't know what's going to happen this winter. They think its's going to start raining. They think it's going to start snowing. But they thought we were going to have a wet June and we didn't. So, I think we're going to see some real changes."

Those changes would mean leaning on corn with shorter growth cycles and reconsidering irrigation priorities.

"You'll see more calculated risks on the shared water," he said. "Two weeks ago, I might have given you some yield estimate, but I wouldn't at this point because I think there's a good chance we're still going to see some fall out. I think Stevens County will be well below average."

He's giving soybeans, including those that have seen well water, a better, albeit not great, prognosis, predicting closer-to-average yields.

For Stevens County, the DTN model predicts yield estimates of 119.0 bpa for corn and 56.7 bpa for soybeans. The county's five-year yield averages are 151.5 bpa and 64.9 bpa for corn and soybeans, respectively.

-- Jake Martin, Andale, Sedgwick County:

Though heat has taken a toll in central Kansas, farmers aren't concerned on the same level as farther west. Jake Martin, who farms outside Wichita near Andale, was working this week on harvesting his operation's dryland corn. So far, that has been OK, he said.

"It's really been depending on soil type. The heavier ground around Andale was surprising," he said. "We were at 140 to 155 bushels, better than expected. The bottom end for us has been around 100, on some of the rolling ground that doesn't hold moisture as well. I've heard further north, they've had yields as low as 50 bpa. It's crazy to see that kind of variability."

Martin said his irrigated corn and beans are still weeks away from harvest. Both are holding on to look at least average, if not slightly better, he noted.

"Dryland beans, though, if this current forecast holds, we won't harvest a lot of dryland beans. A lot of guys will opt for feed instead of taking it to harvest."

Martin isn't taking away a lot of new insights from this year's crop. Instead, it's reinforced some of what he's already known.

"The fields where we were able to generate more residue have handled the heat and dryness better," he said. "When you buy another week or two where the crops aren't shutting down in the heat, that could end up being a big deal. Any corn behind wheat stubble from last year, that's been shining. What's really been driven home is that there are many factors out of our control, but that residue can really help to withstand these dry spells."

For Sedgwick County, the DTN model predicts yield estimates of 116.4 bpa for corn and 31.9 bpa for soybeans. The county's five-year yield averages are 126.8 bpa and 37.0 bpa for corn and soybeans, respectively.

-- Melissa Nelson, Performance Crop Research, Great Bend, Kansas:

Melissa Nelson, a crop research scientist based in Great Bend, west of Wichita but still in the central part of the state, noted variability not just in her region, but throughout Kansas.

"We're in a drought state. Dryland is burning up, especially today," she said, noting a 108-degree reading as she spoke to DTN on Aug 13. "We've hit triple digits every day for two weeks, and it gets progressively worse the further west you go. Irrigated ground here (near Great Bend) still looks good, though. We're not topping yield because of the heat and overall conditions, but pollination went well."

She said the soybeans she's seen have handled the heat better and look to be on track for a strong yield.

Several plots she monitors farther east in the state reveal the difference timely rain can make. Around Topeka, which has been plenty wet, things look great.

"The crop is looking fantastic," she said. "You can't find a bad cornfield out there. It's beautiful."

Progressive Farmer Editor-in-Chief Katie Dehlinger contributed to this report.

Joel Reichenberger can be reached at joel.reichenberger@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @JReichPF

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